Sheep Farming Feasibility Study in Libya: Run the Numbers in LYD

A sheep farming feasibility study for Libya rests on five parts: capital (ewes, rams, pens, equipment), running costs led by feed and labour, revenue (lambs × survival × sale weight × price per kilo), break-even, and a sensitivity check. A Libyan flock can make money, but the margin moves sharply with barley prices, lambs per ewe, losses and whether you sell before Eid al-Adha.

Conditions differ a lot across the country. In the Green Mountain (Jabal Akhdar), the Nafusa mountains and the Jifara plain, flocks find grazing in winter and spring, while in summer, autumn and the drier areas the breeder relies on barley, straw and concentrates. So do not copy a ready-made study from somewhere else: build your own with the method below and fill it with prices from your market. For the general method in more depth, see our sheep farm feasibility study guide.

What a Libyan sheep project costs

Capital (paid once):

• Animals: ewes and rams. The local Barbary fat-tailed sheep is what most Libyan buyers ask for. Add transport, a vet check and isolation on arrival.
• Pens: fencing, shade and separate pens for mothers, lambs, rams and sick animals, with protection from winter cold and the hot ghibli wind.
• Equipment: feeders, drinkers, water tank, scale and tagging tools.
• Land and water: rented land is a running cost; if water comes from a well or by tanker, cost it carefully.

Running costs (per year):

• Feed: barley, straw, concentrates and minerals, lower in the grazing season and higher in summer and autumn.
• Labour: a shepherd or worker, with food.
• Vet care: vaccinations following your vet and the competent authorities, treatments and checks.
• Water, fuel and maintenance, especially if water is trucked in.
• Transport and market fees.
• Depreciation: a yearly share of what the pens and equipment cost.

The revenue formula

In a breeding flock, income comes mainly from lambs:

1. Lambs born = ewes × average lambs per ewe per year.
2. Lambs reaching sale = lambs born × survival rate.
3. Lambs sold = survivors − ewe lambs kept as replacements.
4. Lamb income = lambs sold × sale weight × price per kilo.
5. Add income from culled ewes.

Sheep gestation is about 147 days, and lambs then need several months to reach sale weight, so the first real income arrives roughly a year after the ram goes in. Plan mating so lambs are ready before Eid al-Adha, the biggest demand peak of the year in Libya.

Illustrative example: 100 ewes and 3 rams

Illustrative example — replace the figures with prices from your area. Every price and rate below is an assumption for explanation, not a Libyan market price.

Net profit in this example is about 5,770 LYD a year, roughly 5% of capital, before land and the owner's time. The project also needs cash to cover feed and wages until the first sale.

Break-even and sensitivity

Break-even: lamb sales must bring in 110,330 − 9,000 = 101,330 LYD. Over 102 lambs at 35 kg (3,570 kg), the break-even price is about 28.4 LYD per kilo, or selling about 97 lambs at 1,050 LYD each.

Now change one factor and keep the rest fixed:

The lesson: a rise in barley alone, or a dry year that stretches the feeding period, is enough to turn profit into loss. Combine just two improvements, 10% cheaper feed and 1.5 lambs per ewe, and net profit climbs to about 31,650 LYD, with payback in about 3.6 years instead of roughly 20 years in the base case.

What drives sheep prices in Libya?

We will not quote a market price here, because it changes from week to week and town to town. The drivers are well known:

• Breed: local Barbary sheep are in demand and usually sell above imported animals.
• Weight and age: a finished Eid ram is priced differently from a cull ewe.
• Season: demand jumps before Eid al-Adha and calms afterwards.
• Feed prices: when barley rises, many breeders sell early and supply grows.
• Rain and pasture: a good season lowers rearing costs and changes when people sell.
• Condition: health, finish and cleanliness.

From paper to real numbers

A study is an estimate before you start; what matters is comparing it with reality month by month. On the Throf platform you record expenses and sales and see net profit and cost per head, track feed stock in kilos, and follow births, twins and deaths, so you know whether you really reached 1.3 lambs per ewe. See also how to calculate cost per head. If you are still setting up, start with our guide to a sheep farming project in Libya, and see Throf in Libya for how the platform helps Libyan breeders.

Before you start, check licensing, site and vaccination requirements with the competent livestock authorities in your area rather than relying on market talk.