Sheep Farming Feasibility Study in Tunisia (in Dinars)

A sheep farming feasibility study in Tunisia has five parts: capital (ewes, rams, shed and equipment), yearly costs led by feed (barley, oat hay, alfalfa) and the shepherd, revenue (lambs × survival × sale price, best before Eid al-Adha), the break-even point and a sensitivity analysis. The project can be profitable, but the margin is thin and reacts quickly to feed prices and drought.

In central and southern Tunisia most flocks graze rangeland, olive groves and crop stubble, then rely more on bought feed during the dry months. Numbers therefore differ between Sidi Bouzid, Kasserine, Le Kef and the North, and a ready-made study is of little use without adjustment. Build your own with the method below and fill it with prices from your local weekly souk. For the general method, see our sheep project feasibility study.

Cost items in a Tunisian sheep project

Capital (paid once):

• The flock: ewes and rams, plus transport, a vet check and quarantine on arrival. Value differs between the fat-tailed Barbarine and the Western Thin-tail, and between a young ewe and an old one.
• The shed: protection from winter cold and rain, shade in summer, with pens for pregnant ewes, mothers with lambs, rams and isolation.
• Equipment: feeders, drinkers, a water tank, a scale and identification tools.
• Land: if rented, count the rent as a yearly cost.

Yearly costs:

• Feed: barley, oat hay, alfalfa, bran, concentrates and minerals; some breeders also use local by-products such as olive cake, depending on availability and with technical advice.
• Shepherd: wage and food if you do not herd yourself.
• Vet care: vaccinations on the schedule set by your vet and the official veterinary services, treatments and checks.
• Water, fuel and maintenance.
• Transport and souk fees.
• Depreciation: a yearly share of the cost of the shed and equipment.

The revenue formula

1. Lambs born = number of ewes × lambs per ewe per year.
2. Lambs to sale = lambs born × survival rate.
3. Lambs sold = lambs to sale − ewe lambs kept for replacement.
4. Lamb revenue = lambs sold × price per head.
5. Add the sale of cull ewes.

Ewe gestation is about 147 days, then the lamb needs several months of growth and finishing, so real income arrives about a year after the ram goes in. Plan cash for that whole period.

Illustrative example: 50 Barbarine ewes and 2 rams

Illustrative example — replace every figure with prices from your area. These prices and rates are teaching assumptions, not Tunisian market prices.

Net profit in this example is about 3,094 TND a year, close to 4.8% of capital, before land and the breeder's own time.

Break-even and sensitivity

Break-even: lambs must bring in 39,806 − 5,500 = 34,306 TND. Over 44 head, the break-even price is about 780 TND per lamb, or about 41 head sold at 850 TND.

Then change one factor at a time:

The lesson: in this example the margin is thin, and a single bad change is enough to make a loss. Combine two improvements, feed 10% cheaper and 1.4 lambs per ewe, and profit rises to about 12,700 TND, with capital paid back in about 5 years instead of more than 20.

What drives sheep prices and margins in Tunisia

We do not quote prices: they change week to week and region to region. These are the factors that move them:

• Rain and grazing: a good year cuts the barley and hay bill; a dry year raises it and pushes breeders to sell.
• Barley and feed prices: the largest cost; buy at the right time and store dry. See how to reduce feed costs.
• Eid al-Adha: demand for sheep rises sharply in the weeks before, and a well-finished animal sells faster and for more.
• Lambing rate and losses: the Barbarine is hardy but not very prolific, so every lost lamb weighs heavily on the result.
• Age and presentation: teeth, conformation, tail and cleanliness all shape offers.

For any support, financing or permits, ask the regional agricultural and veterinary services before buying, and do not build your study on unwritten promises.

From paper to real numbers

A study is an estimate; what matters is comparing it with reality every month. On the Throf platform you record expenses and sales to see net profit and cost per head, track feed stock in kilos, and log births and losses, so you know whether you really reach 1.2 lambs per ewe. See the Throf Tunisia page (in French), and if you are just starting, read our guide to a sheep farming project in Tunisia. For breeds, see sheep farming in Algeria and Tunisia.